The Premise = Background Strength and Weakness on the Higher Times Frames ONLY!!

Current Premise = Background Strength and Weakness Consider on the Higher Times Frames ONLY!! -Use the 40,500 13,500 and 4500 tick to determine the Background S/W as well as Tops and Bottom Shapes (ie. Mushroom Tops/Saucer Bottoms) and S& R lines. 4500 is good for Identifying current waves entering the market. This makes up my current Trade Premise at ANY given time during the session. As long as the premise remains Trade with it. Dont focus on point stops, rather focus on target exits as it pertains to the premise and timing.


Take Note of the Incoming Waves of Strength and Weakness that show up intraday. Usually the previous days close, Globex and Pre-Open will provide background S&W for the Open. BUT many times there may be a wave of S&W appearing at the Open, 7 zones or even midday during the dead Zone. Keep an eye out for current S&W.  If longer term Strength is supported  by current Strength, then we have odds on favor when a sequence sets up.

Examples of Block Volume on the 13,500 and 4500 indicating waves of Strength and Weakness. Revealing the short term inventory objections of the MM/Specialist.
13,500

 5 minute

 4500

Ice Fade's - Previous Days/Globex/Pre-Open S & R Bounce

MATD Morning After Trend This Sequence is based on Don Millers MATD trade along with my own observations of Globex and Pre-open Bounce near the open. 

The idea is to Fade the S/R area after a Trend Day to take advantage of Wholesales prices and Traders needs to React at theses areas. 

These Days Bring stuck Traders that NEED to take action (If Support, these Traders Bought at the highs and are Now under serious Pressure and will panic out at these lows by Short Covering which will strengthen our position. Vis versa for Resistance) Other Traders that Missed the trend altogether and are Now Upset and will rush in at these Support Levels which will further Strengthen My position.  Best on Mornings After Trend Day.

• I.D. Longer Trend 13,500, 4500, 135 minute ( MUST) -  We want to trade in the direction of the Longer term trend. Draw Trend Lines if needed
• I.D. Prior Days, Globex, Pre-Open S&R - We want to Draw S/R line on the 13,500 and 4500 and note any Tick confluence cycle's around these areas. This is the Background.
• Probars or Block Volume Reacting at these levels  ( MUST) - We want to see Professional activity reacting at these levels. On Retest(Double Tops/Bottoms) of Globex S/R we May Get No Supply or No Demand at these level. The rules remain the same.
• Take the 1st Tick Bounce off Extremes  ( MUST) - When Tick begans to turn at the first Low Extreme you should have position on. On 2nd or 3rd Bounces look for $TICK Divergence for great confirmation.
• Entering with Bids or Offers above and Below Market  ( MUST) - We want to place Buy/Sell orders above/below market - No need for probar breaks prior to entry - We Want to catch the price closest to S/R as possible as price stalls and turns. If we are not filled when the $TICK turns then forget the trade. DONT Chase the market.
• Exiting Into The Market - Price should bounce into favor fairly quickly. Allow time for price to move in favor. Im looking for the market to take me out of the trade. Read the tape and when Price starts pausing and stalling while in profit drag limit to exit. Give it at least 5 minutes. **Note** When Longs are not getting Filled that is a Strong Sign of Weakness. When Shorts are Not getting Filled that is strong sign of Strength. Best to Close All or readjust limits and Reassess the premise 
• Money Mangement.Use a 2pt stop on the trade with max 2 lots not wider than 1pts apart. ie If i enter the 1st trade at the 1200, then the 2nd entry should be 1199 or 1201 Risking max 2 pts each for a 4 point total Risk, the same as a single lot entry with 4pt stop.

Open Ice Breaker Fade: 

look to Fade the Hi and Lows instead of breakouts WHEN the Pre-Open has High Volume at tops/bottoms that NEED TO BE TESTED before continuing. The 2 minute and 1500 tick shows a closer look at the volume activity at this time also. These may be more likely to occur after a LARGE GAP above 8+pts (see more)

• 1 Market Bias Signal RANGE.
• 2 Pre Open Highs that have NOT been tested. May be at Cycle S/R, Pivots or  Globex POC. Also Blocks at highs and lows and True Rambos at highs and lows confirm direction.
• 3 Finally we look for the 13,500 Opening bar to print.
• 4 Wait for Price to test the Hi/Lo, many times it rejects quickly.
• Enter Fade in Opposite direction of Strength/Weakness

Blocks at pre-open highs, price retesting the area on the open.

13,500 and 1500 look at an Ice Fade.

-Also when the Market Bias calls for a Strong Range like today, Look to fade the Hi/Lo's or Stay out if their are NO signs of momentum or tight consolidation is on the pre-open.

Another Example of Ice Breaker Fade

Ice Fade Characteristics - This is MATD variant, we are taking into account the fact that Weakness/Strength was in play on the PRE-OPEN. So the results would likely happen on the open.

1. The Pre Open had Blocks and high volume leading into the Top. 
2. The Top was the Actual High, Needing to break New ground for any profit.
3. There was NoD on the 4500, 1500 TOPS and No Pro bars on the Actual Open. 
4. $TICK printed Exhaustion after Consecutive tight range bars leading to the peak.

Tick View of the Ice Fade, Notice the prior days Close showed strength that played out in the after market moving to NEW highs peaking on the Actual Open.

 13,500 View of the Ice Ice fade. Waves of strength and weakness must be viewed as continuos as we see here that the close Strength playo ut in the globex and Weakness was set in by the open.

Specific Order of Thinking Prior to the Open

The order of Thinking and Focus that must be addresses prior to starting the Day is as follows:

Acknowledge the EGO - Determine that we will Not rush the open or allow Mr EGO to take control of our actions. We are NOT trying to be Right about the outcome. We have No expectations for each outcome. We will be observers of our thoughts and maintain a positive focus for the day.


Determine Background Strength & Weakness -This is the Very first thing we Must Determine before going any further in our analysis of the morning potential. This includes the Globex and Pre-Open, taking into account any New S/W that appears after the previous days close.


Determine Most Recent 4500 Tick Trend - Use the Bollinger Band Channels to guide the direction. Be sure it MATCHES the Strength or Weakness. If not, then stay out. Conflicting Trend and Background means choppy markets and indecision. This is a High Risk Environment!!


Qualify Sequence - This has proven to be a bit tricky if we don't follow the rules Specifically. If the Sequence is not VERY clear then pass on it, chances are we may be creating or confirming a bias. This usually leads to Unqualified trades. If we notice that we have entered an unqualified trade then we should EXIT Immediately!! Don't allow an Unqualified Trade to linger at all!!


Managing the Risk - Management is Not constantly moving stops around But IDENTIFYING LIKELY AREAS WHERE STOPS MAY BE. Specialist will often go to where the stops are prior to moving into intended direction.

Signs of Price Rejection at Extremes on the TAPE

Signs of Price Rejection on the Tape 
Its Best to Focus on the Tape once price is nearing New territory. tape reading too early can promote early exits!

1. Price breaks into new ground. 
2. Then it breaks only by a tick or two and retreats (may have already broken by more but is now stalling) 
3. Volume bars print small number ie. 63 as price attempts the next break in direction. 
4. A general slowing down in activity. (I may see Rambos' or Probars around this area)

Rejection can happen very quickly, if we watch the tape closely we may see that price is rejected without ever seeing a move into the rejected price.
(notice the last price @ 1209.75 had 63 Trades!! After printing 7839 previously! This is Selling into the highs by Pro and No current interest by Pro's at that price)

Price may eventually return to the rejected level BUT it may take a substantial amount of time and heat before doing so.