Even The Perfect Setup Can Fail

I wanted to mention a trade that happened mid afternoon today as an example that there is NO perfect setup NOR guaranteed trade, When I remember this then i can focus on PROBABILITY which is all we truly can strive to put in our favor, When my edge appears it is my duty to participate. That's it that's all. NO more No less. Spot the Edge and participate. If i truly have an edge the account will average profitable.

Ok so we had THE PERFECT setup, we had Confluence on the 1500 tick with End of Trend Warning and heavy Pro Bars, on the 500 tick we had Cyclical End of trend warning with Rambos and Pro bars at Resistance, on the 13,500 we had strong Support from yesterday that was Now Resistance along with a bearish PB warning. on the 2 minute chart we were at resistance with NO demand Bars and Pro bars and on the 15 minute chart we were at gap resistance from Yesterday.
What ensued was very common in that the price continued to test these areas with very little push to the downside, then it broke  up ever so slightly and consolidated on top of the 500 tick End of Trend resistance but still at or under the other resistance areas in other time frames. Even the $TICK was showing divergence and the After perching upon this 500 level for about 15 minutes it resumed its move to the upside and slowly continued on for the remainder of the day. This particular trade happened at 12:00 on a Friday (NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE TRADING AT ALL)

Talk about CONFLUENCE!!. ** Notice the slight up trend on the 500 with strength in the background.

2 minute Resistance making higher highs

What i did do was Notice this happening and changed my view, after all this was a Flag/ consolidation that was trending up and bound to break out eventually with Strength in the Background, the path of least resistance was UP. After being stopped out I was able to reverse my position for a nice gain.

The lesson here is that even when everything lines up perfectly I have to be ready to change my view on the spot and roll with the tide. 

REMEMBER:

• Time of Day Matters -  Clearly by this time The campaign to the upside was well under way and was bound to continue. Trading at these times  Negates all rules!!
• Remember that the more  S/R gets tested the more likely it is to break.
• When Price consolidates it tend to break in the direction of the trend. Look for background S/W and look for No supply/No Demand bars at S/R. Ask is price being supported at the moment?
• PRICE RULES above all signals signs and indicators.
• Price travels in the PATH of LEAST RESISTANCE, if the obvious is NOT playing out then you got to reevaluate and be ready to execute.

"I am the CASINO NOT the SPECULATOR or GAMBLER"