Many of my mistakes particularly of the impulsive type happen because I lose focus on the likely Forecast that i so often get right but fail to execute in a way that allows the action to play out fully while I'm in it.
One reason for this is that when i lose focus I tend to look at the Lowers(500tick) for ENTRY'S, Instead of observing the entire trades likely targets (entries, stops, position sizes, targets)
In evaluating my perspective i came up with a good reminder acronym F.E.M. in order to re focus on what I must keep in the front of my trading mind.
Forecast - this is the preparation and analysis that tells me where the market is Likely to go for the day, starting with Globex into the Pre-Open, opening bar, 7 and 9bar zones. USE DAILY MARKET BIAS X and STAY WITH IT. The Forecast includes each section of the trading day including the Globex session, morning, midday and afternoon. When I view the market in sections it allows me to focus on specific conditions for each section. The Type of Gap day, Average True Range and what i can expect leading up to and thru zones. Forecast also includes the Setup potential based on the current sections Strength/Weakness Support/Resistance, VSA rational and Confluence Synchronization.
Execution - This is me actually recognizing and taking action based upon my forecast, including entering on a bar break confirmation, re-entering if needed and reversing position at key points. Also Exiting at max profit once I get the 1500 Exhaustion and Pro bar signals or when volume and market dynamics invalidates my bias for the entry. Execution also cover the concept of adding to positions that show signs of target potential early on in the trade. Equally as important is the ability to recognize and Exit a potential losing trade, When price Fights The Cycle/Ignores The Cycle or fails to move into the green in a reasonable amount of time.
Management - This is my ability to limit losses by managing the trade either using the ATM or manually moving stops up/down. Understanding when to scale in and out of positions is critical for Maximizing profits and limiting losses. Risk management can also include picking high probability trades at high probability TIMES and areas that provide lowest risk. Knowing when to avoid the market is just as important as knowing when to enter, when Im on the sidelines I'm essentially playing defense and this is management of Exposure
The 3 thirds of my trading are the cornerstone to progress. Each one of these must be mastered in relation to the other, No one can yield positive results alone. Each one needs the other just as a 3 leg chair would fall at the breakage of any one leg.
If I were running a restaurant the F.E.M would apply in the same manner. I would need to forecast what the customers where interested in, execute or product the entree, and lastly i would have to manage the process of transferring the desired product to the customer at a cost that provided my store a profit.
Cure for the breakeven blues - Wait until price cycles back to the original entry then reverses, then move our protect-profit order to protect at least half of our open profits.
Things to Remember about the basic ebb and flow of all Markets
